1. Egg prices have fallen for six consecutive months, with the major producing provinces falling by a large margin.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture monitoring, since October 2016, the national egg price has fallen for six consecutive months, a cumulative decline of 32.1%. Among them, the total wholesale prices of 10 major producing provinces, such as Hebei, Shanxi and Liaoning, fell by 58.7%. In the third week of March 2017, the price of eggs fell to its lowest level in nearly five years, at 7.34 yuan per kilogram, down 20.9% compared with the same period in 2016. Among them, the wholesale prices of 10 major producing provinces such as Hebei, Shanxi and Liaoning fell to the lowest level in nearly five years, at 5.30 yuan per kilogram, a decline of 27.2% over the same period last year.
2. Loose supply and demand and lower feed costs together led to a sustained decline in egg prices
In recent years, the price of eggs has continued to fall sharply, not only because of the abundant market supply, but also because of the insufficient consumption demand. The first is that the increase of stock leads to a loose market supply for laying hens. Stimulated by the good benefits of laying hen farming in 2014 and 2015, large-scale chicken feeding was carried out by farmers in 2016, and the stock of laying hens increased continuously. According to statistics, in February 2017, the national stock of laying hens reached 1.34 billion, an increase of more than 8% year on year. At the same time, since the end of 2016, the price of eliminated chickens has been declining along the way. In addition to the recent H7N9 epidemic in many parts of the country, the purchasing market of eliminated chickens has slowed down significantly. Overall, the stock of laying hens in the past six months is high, and the market for eggs is abundant. Second, the demand for eggs continues to be weak. Affected by the declining sales of cakes, moon cakes and other foods, the demand for egg processing has decreased significantly. Under the influence of the backflow of peasant workers, the consumption demand of egg groups has also slowed down, and the overall demand for eggs is still weak. Third, the falling cost of corn has provided space for the falling price of eggs. According to the Ministry of Agriculture monitoring data, in the third week of March 2017, the national corn price dropped to a new low of 1.83 yuan per kilogram in the past five years, 10.3% lower than the same period in 2016, and 31.9% lower than the highest price in history. The sharp drop in the price of corn has pushed down the production cost of eggs, providing a certain space for the drop in the price of eggs.
3. The price of eggs will fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and it is expected to rise again after June.
In the short term, the egg market is abundant, the market demand is weak and the price is low. First, despite the recent losses in laying hen farming, the H7N9 epidemic in some parts of the country has slowed down the elimination of chickens, and the stock of laying hens is adequate. With the increase of temperature, the production capacity of laying hens increased and the production of eggs was sufficient. Second, the current temperature is suitable for storage of eggs, and the price of eggs is lower than the cost price, which leads to the phenomenon of low prices and sellers of eggs. There is a certain backlog of eggs, and the situation of loose market supply will continue. Third, in the absence of stimulating factors of festival consumption demand, limited support of catering market, peasant workers and college groups, the motive force for the rise of egg prices is insufficient, and the price of eggs will remain low in the short term. After mid-April, with the gradual elimination of chickens, the stock of laying hens is expected to fall, the market supply is expected to improve, but the expected increase is still limited.
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